The Troy

Precious Metals Intelligence

Welcome to the first edition of The Troy, Bloodstone Research’s weekly examination of gold, silver and the platinum-group metals.

Each Monday, we’ll bring together the evidence that matters: prices, speculative positioning, physical-market conditions, inventories and the flows that connect them. The objective is not to predict the next move, but to distinguish what the market is pricing from what the underlying data actually show.

Two Investor Bases, Four Different Answers

Gold fell 8.5% in September and ETF investors bought it anyway. The World Gold Council has gold ending the month at $4,176 an ounce with roughly $10 billion of ETF inflows, separately reported as around 67 tonnes, while COMEX aggregate net length fell about 100 tonnes including 84 tonnes of Managed Money. One group accumulated, another reduced, and the price declined through both.

The CFTC report for the week to 6 October — a later period — shows that reduction continuing, unevenly. Gold carried nearly all of it, losing 9,331 contracts split almost equally between closed longs and new shorts, which looks more deliberate than profit-taking. Silver’s net moved 86 contracts and platinum’s rose 219. Palladium is the one to watch: its net short widened to 9,385 contracts, with Managed Money gross shorts equal to 65.9% of reported open interest in a market of only 21,060.

China reopened into the same weakness, every principal contract lower on 8 October against 30 September, palladium worst at 6.95%. The physical market didn’t follow — SMM reported buyers returning on the declines and silver social inventory down just two tonnes at 3,934. Rates are the likeliest common cause, with the 10-year up 53 basis points over September to around 5.3%, though what bears on a non-yielding asset is the real rate, and September’s data doesn’t settle where that went.

Gold analysis — ETF Buying Holds Up as Futures Funds Retreat

September’s 8.5% decline against 67 tonnes of ETF inflows, with the official sector, the yield backdrop and the real-rate question behind it.

Read the note →

CFTC Precious Metals Positioning Intelligence — Gold Longs Retreat as Palladium Shorts Deepen

The full four-metal breakdown for the week to 6 October, with gross positioning and open-interest shares.

Read the note →

China Precious Metals Intelligence — Gold Falls as Palladium Leads Post-Holiday Declines

Shanghai, SHFE and GFEX reopening prices, silver inventories, August PGM imports and the platinum-group compounds market.

Read the note →

CFTC Managed Money Positioning

Positions as at 6 October 2026, published 9 October. Futures only, in contracts.

Positioning as a share of open interest:

Shares are Managed Money positions measured against total reported open interest, which includes every other category of participant. Contract sizes differ across metals, so contract counts are not comparable as physical exposure. Spreading positions are excluded from the net calculation. These are Disaggregated Managed Money figures, not the legacy non-commercial category.

China Physical and Exchange Prices

8 October against 30 September, spanning the seven-day National Day closure.

GFEX figures are 11:30 observations, not settlements. Prices are in reported yuan units with no currency conversion applied.

01 — Palladium’s Short Book

Managed Money gross shorts of 13,870 contracts against total open interest of 21,060, in the smallest of the four markets. The net short has more than doubled in four weeks, from 4,339 contracts on 8 September. Concentration like that makes the short side the variable that matters, though a large short is not evidence that covering is imminent.

02 — Whether Gold’s ETF Bid Persists

September’s inflows ran against a falling price. If October repeats it, the divergence becomes a pattern rather than a month. Neither series can establish that one flow is absorbing the other.

03 — Real Rates, Not Nominal

The 10-year at roughly 5.3% is a nominal yield. What bears on gold is the real rate, and during an oil-driven inflation episode the two can diverge. This is the unresolved question behind September’s decline.

04 — Platinum’s Lone Increase

The only metal funds bought, and only by 219 contracts against a 1,672-contract fall the week before. Whether that is a turn or a pause is a question for the next two releases.

05 — Chinese Silver Inventories

Effectively flat at 3,934 tonnes, with warrant stocks not updated during the closure. The first clean post-holiday reading is the one that counts.

06 — The PGM Import Figures

August palladium imports up 73.58% year on year against reports of tight prompt-delivery material. Substantial inflows and constrained immediate availability are not contradictory, but the gap between them is worth watching.

The Bottom Line

The complex is being priced by people who never have to take delivery.

September made that visible in gold. ETF buyers added 67 tonnes into an 8.5% decline, and the screen price went the other way regardless. The CFTC report for the week to 6 October shows the same category of participant still reducing, though the picture across the four metals is uneven rather than uniform: gold carried almost all of the weight, silver barely moved, and platinum went the other way.

What makes this more than a positioning story is that the physical evidence points the other way nearly everywhere it can be observed. Chinese buyers came back on the price declines. Silver inventories held. Platinum and palladium material was reported tight for prompt delivery even with import volumes running well above prior years. And the official sector bought 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter — the strongest second quarter on record, though a weak first quarter left the half-year total at 345 tonnes, the lowest since 2022. Both halves of that statistic are true, and most commentary carries only the first.

Positioning and physical demand have diverged before, and it has resolved in both directions. What stands out here is palladium, where Managed Money gross shorts now equal almost two-thirds of the open interest in a market small enough that the position is harder to leave than it was to build.

That is where this letter starts looking.

Data: CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders, positions 6 October 2026, published 9 October; Shanghai Metals Market and Shanghai Gold Exchange releases of 8 October 2026; World Gold Council September market commentary and Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026.

The Troy is published every Monday by Bloodstone Research, covering gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

This document is published by Bloodstone Research for informational and institutional research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, commodity or security, or a forecast of future performance. Market conditions and data may change without notice. Readers should conduct their own analysis and, where appropriate, seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions. For institutional enquiries: [email protected]