The Lode

Copper Longs Thin Again as Zinc Funds Build on Both Sides

Investment funds cut net length in copper, aluminium and zinc in the week to 23 October, but by different routes. Copper’s was almost entirely liquidation: 7,820.50 gross longs removed against only 632.79 lots of new shorts, a second consecutive week of long selling that has taken net length down 15,528.50 lots across the two reports. Aluminium and zinc went the other way, short accumulation accounting for 85.3% and 62.7% of their declines with long books intact. Lead and tin improved, lead’s net short narrowing 3,714.87 lots through new longs and covering together. Zinc’s combined gross exposure reached 52.50% of reported open interest, up from 50.30%, the largest fund footprint in the complex.

China’s copper market became harder to replenish rather than merely tighter. Yangshan warrant premiums averaged $193 a tonne over 26 to 29 October, up $48 on the week, while the loss on importing cathode widened roughly ¥832 to ¥1,242.77 — buyers paying more for nearby metal as the economics of replacing it deteriorated. National social inventory fell another 24,900 tonnes to about 80,000 and bonded stocks 1,200 to 26,800, with both Shanghai and Guangdong contributing. Lead’s five-region social inventory roughly halved to 17,100 tonnes while secondary smelter utilisation rose 3.55 points to 36.7%, so the visible draw and the supply recovery run in opposite directions.

Tin is this week’s standalone, and its nearby curve reversed. After backwardation throughout 13 to 28 October, apart from parity on 22 October, official offer prices put cash $75 below three-month metal on 29 October, the move coming as cash fell 2.51% on the day against 1.70% for three-month delivery. LME stocks stood at 4,020 tonnes, 20 above the 2026 low of 4,000 and 53.1% below the 30 June balance of 8,575. Myanmar ore imports have recovered, but surveyed utilisation in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained at 27.11% in the week to 23 October, leaving the pace of any refined supply recovery unresolved.

LME Positioning Intelligence — Zinc Fund Exposure Exceeds Half of Open Interest

Copper sheds another 7,820.50 gross longs while aluminium and zinc attract shorts. Includes the reporting-vintage gap on nickel’s prior-week balance, disclosed rather than reconciled.

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China Metals Intelligence — Copper Import Premiums Hit Records as Arbitrage Loss Widens

Record Yangshan premiums alongside a ¥1,243 import loss; aluminium destocking that splits Foshan from Wuxi; lead’s social inventory halving as secondary smelters restart.

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Tin analysis — 2026-10-30

The curve flips into contango at close to the year’s tightest visible stock, while Myanmar’s restart and PT Timah’s recovery have yet to reach deliverable metal.

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LME Investment Fund Positioning

Positions as at 23 October 2026, published 27 October. Investment Funds “Other” positions, in lots. Changes from the corresponding “Other” series.

The 27 October reports imply a prior-week nickel balance of 544.86 lots against the 454.88 published on 20 October. Both figures are retained; the 89.98-lot difference is disclosed as a vintage gap, not restated.

Fund Positions as a Share of Open Interest

Combined gross share adds both sides of the book. It measures positioning relative to reported open interest, not the proportion of unique contracts funds control. Lead remains the only net short.

China Physical Signals

Shanghai Metals Market, 26 to 30 October. Bases differ and are identified; regional figures are not components of the national weekly change.

Domestic, bonded and exchange-warehouse series measure different pools and are not interchangeable. Material clearing customs moves between categories without changing total availability. The zinc figure is reported as national domestic inventory and is not confirmed as the seven-region survey used in earlier editions.

LME Tin — Curve and Stock

Cash settlement and three-month prices on the official offer basis; the official bid basis for 29 October gives a $60 contango. 12 October was the last contango before 29 October. The 2026 stock low of 4,000 tonnes was touched on 26 and 27 October.

Man Maw Restarts, but China’s Refining Recovery Remains Uncertain

Wa State’s Man Maw mine, suspended since 2023, is running again. The International Crisis Group’s 10 September analysis described ore moving in what its senior Asia adviser Richard Horsey called a steady but uneven ramp-up, and the International Tin Association recorded the Wa authorities formalising a 5% levy on concentrate from the first transported batch to fund dewatering of the deeper flooded adits, effective 1 March. The ITA put the combined burden on mine owners at roughly 35% once the existing 30% tax-in-kind is included — an estimated cost share, not a measured breakeven. Chinese gross ore imports from Myanmar reached nearly 40,000 tonnes in the first half, above the whole of 2025.

Surveyed smelter utilisation in Yunnan and Jiangxi stood at 27.11% in the week to 23 October, with SMM citing maintenance and raw-material constraints. Rising aggregate ore imports do not establish that suitable feedstock has reached those particular smelters. The available evidence does not distinguish a physical shortage from commercial purchasing constraints, and neither explanation can be inferred from the LME forward curve alone.

Zinc’s two-sided book. Combined gross exposure rose to 52.50% of open interest, the largest in the complex, 31.02% long against 21.48% short, even as net length fell 1,292.62 lots. Whether either gross book unwinds matters as much as the net direction.

Copper’s replacement economics. Record premiums and a widening import loss measure different things. Whether the arbitrage narrows as shipping delays resolve and smelter maintenance concludes determines if the squeeze was supply-driven.

Tin’s curve. Whether the $75 contango persists after backwardation throughout 13 to 28 October, and whether the cash leg keeps leading the spread. One session is weak evidence either way.

Chinese tin smelter rates. The next survey after the week to 23 October, both for the level against 27.11% and for whether SMM’s stated constraint shifts from raw materials towards margins.

Lead’s secondary restarts. China’s five-region social inventory fell to 17,100 tonnes as secondary smelter utilisation rose to 36.7% and finished-product stocks reached 7,900 tonnes. Whether the recovery in output changes the direction of social inventories and spot premiums.

Aluminium’s regional split. Measured since 26 October, Foshan fell 5,500 tonnes while Wuxi rose 2,500, and processing fees moved opposite ways. Whether arrivals rebalance decides how long that holds.

Data sources: LME MiFID II Weekly Commitments of Traders reports, positions as at 23 October 2026; LME Tin official and closing prices and stocks, 29 October 2026; published LME tin settlement and stock series, 12 to 29 October 2026; Shanghai Metals Market surveys and assessments, 23 to 30 October 2026; International Tin Association and International Crisis Group reporting on the Man Maw restart; PT Timah first-half 2026 announcement.

The Lode is published weekly by Bloodstone Capital Research. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Independent financial advice should be sought before making any investment decision.