Cropwire

The Harvest Catches Up, the Selling Changes Character

Last week this letter described funds selling into a season running late. One half of that has now resolved. Corn harvesting advanced 16 points to 60% and cut its deficit from eight points to six, soybeans moved two points ahead of their five-year average, and winter-wheat planting recovered from six points behind normal to one. Field access was the constraint and it eased: Iowa recorded 6.4 days suitable for fieldwork against 4.6, Ohio 6.6 against 4.0.

The positioning half did not resolve. It accelerated. Managed Money cut corn net length by another 82,002 contracts in the week to 20 October, a third consecutive substantial reduction, and the composition changed. Funds added 49,555 shorts — more than twice the previous week’s addition — while liquidating 32,447 longs, so new short selling accounted for 60.4% of the weekly reduction against 24.5% a week earlier. In that reporting week, for the first time in this sequence, funds added bearish positions faster than they closed bullish ones.

Managed Money positioning weakened across all three wheat contracts, and two did it the same way. Chicago’s net short widened 19,450 contracts on 18,599 new shorts, 95.6% of the move. Minneapolis more than halved its net long to 4,193 on 4,504 new shorts, 84% of the move. Kansas City mixed the two, and its remaining 7,490-contract net long is now smaller than its latest weekly reduction.

So the gap between the financial position and the physical calendar has not closed. It has inverted. The delay that might have justified caution is easing, and funds have responded by getting shorter. That does not make them wrong — a harvest arriving on schedule is a reason to expect supply, not to fear it — but the bearish case now rests on supply arriving rather than on anything still outstanding in the field.

Livestock is where the week’s sharpest contradiction sits, and it gets a dedicated piece.

US Crop Intelligence — 27 October

Winter wheat closes its planting gap and corn harvesting recovers, but Kansas and Nebraska sorghum fall further behind.

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CFTC Agricultural Positioning Intelligence — 26 October

Corn funds add 49,555 shorts in a week, and new selling overtakes long liquidation as the driver for the first time.

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US Livestock Intelligence — 26 October

Cattle placements hit their lowest September level since 1996 while frozen pork stocks run 9% above a year earlier.

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CFTC Agricultural Positioning

Managed money, futures only. Positions as of 20 October 2026, released 23 October.

Net positions exclude separately reported spreading positions.

Corn’s three-week reduction now totals 216,797 contracts, or 56.9% of the net long held on 29 September. Gross shorts have risen from 58,623 contracts to 133,374 over that period while longs have fallen from 439,843 to 297,797. The position remains net long at a gross ratio of 2.2 to one.

Sugar was the only increasing net-long position on the six-contract board, and again a decelerating one, slowing from 7,035 contracts to 4,981. Lean hogs also improved on the week, but by narrowing a net short rather than extending a long. Soybean meal, tracked separately, declined 3,765 contracts to 200,878 — yet its gross longs rose 645 while shorts rose 4,410, so the entire reduction came from new bearish exposure rather than any withdrawal of longs.

USDA Crop Progress

Week ended 25 October 2026, released 26 October.

Five of the six indicators improved against their benchmarks. Minnesota corn cut its deficit from 15 points to six and Wisconsin to one; Michigan soybeans moved from 14 points behind to seven ahead. Iowa carries the widest deficit among the corn states discussed, at 20 points, having advanced 21 points on the week.

Sorghum is the exception, and the detail matters more than the national figure. Kansas fell from 23 points behind to 25 and Nebraska from 21 to 24, both while harvesting further acreage — the seasonal pace simply ran faster. South Dakota moved the other way, narrowing from last week’s widest deficit of 27 points to 19.

01 — Cattle

September placements fell 12.1% to 1.777 million head, the lowest September figure since the series began in 1996, and undershot the pre-release consensus by roughly 76,000. Feedlot inventory barely moved, at 11.372 million on 1 October against 11.418 million a year earlier, because marketings fell too. Taking placements, marketings and other disappearance together against the opening inventory, the report implies the feedlot population rose by around 204,000 head during September.

02 — Pork

Frozen stocks reached 427.8 million pounds on 30 September, 9% above a year earlier but 1% below the end of August. Hams accounted for much of the annual build at +28% and loins at +25%, while bellies fell 12% on the month against a 7% annual increase. More in storage, in other words, but not uniformly and not in every cut.

03 — Spring Wheat

Minneapolis has been the quietest of the three wheat contracts and moved the most in proportional terms. Managed Money net length more than halved to 4,193 contracts, with 4,504 new shorts against 840 longs liquidated. Gross shorts now stand at 15.5% of open interest of 73,377. The contract is approaching neutral from a different direction than Kansas City.

04 — Soil Moisture

National topsoil rated short or very short rose from 34% to 38%, adequate fell from 59% to 57% and surplus from 7% to 5%. The national measure spans regions in very different conditions and should not be read as the Corn Belt’s story: Iowa’s own surplus fell from 24% to 13% as adequate rose to 81%, while the Delta sits at the opposite extreme, with Arkansas reporting 67% of topsoil very short, Mississippi 62% and Louisiana 61%. None of that bears on crops now being harvested; all of it bears on the next planting decision.

01 — Friday 30 October

CFTC Commitments of Traders, covering positions dated Tuesday 27 October. Whether corn’s short accumulation extends to a fourth week, and whether Kansas City’s remaining 7,490-contract net long crosses into negative territory.

02 — Monday 2 November

USDA Crop Progress. Whether Kansas and Nebraska sorghum stop widening, and whether Oklahoma continues narrowing its winter-wheat planting and emergence deficits before dormancy.

03 — Tuesday 10 November

November WASDE. Whether the Russian export sequence extends beyond the 40m tonnes carried in October, and any revision to the US wheat carryout.

The Bottom Line

What makes this edition’s data worth keeping is a combination, not a single number: physical progress accelerated across most of the US harvest in the same week that fund behaviour turned more short-oriented, and the regional risk picture became more uneven rather than less. The broad national delay argument has weakened. It has not disappeared, and what remains is specific: corn still six points behind with Iowa 20 behind, sorghum 13 points behind nationally and widening in Kansas and Nebraska, Oklahoma’s winter-wheat establishment 18 and 15 points behind on planting and emergence, and 63% of Oklahoma’s cotton rated poor or very poor against 52% in Texas.

Livestock points the other way. Cattle placements at a thirty-year September low tighten the supply of finished animals later, and funds hold a net long of 51,102 contracts in live cattle. Frozen pork sits 9% above last year, and funds are net short 46,813 lean hogs. Both positions moved the same way during the week, through short covering with gross longs falling in each — a reduction in bearish exposure rather than fresh long accumulation. The CFTC records the positions, not the reasons.

The next report will show whether the acceleration in corn short selling was a one-week event or the character of the adjustment from here. The composition of that change will say more than its size.

Data: USDA NASS Crop Progress, week ended 25 October 2026; USDA NASS Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage, released 23 October 2026; CFTC Disaggregated COT, positions 20 October 2026.

Cropwire is published every Tuesday by Bloodstone Research, covering global agricultural commodities, livestock markets and the emerging economies that produce them.

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