Cropwire

Funds Sell Into a Slow Harvest

Across the six contracts in this week’s positioning dashboard, Managed Money reduced net length or extended net shorts in five during the week to 13 October. Sugar was the exception, though its accumulation slowed to roughly a fifth of the previous week’s pace. Soybean meal, tracked separately, remained heavily net long. Corn carried the largest reduction, its second substantial week of liquidation in succession.

That repositioning has happened while the US harvest runs behind. Corn is 44% harvested against a five-year average of 52%, a deficit that widened by two points over the week. Sorghum is twelve points behind. Winter wheat planting and emergence both remain below average, with the shortfall concentrated in Oklahoma and Kansas rather than spread evenly.

The two observations pull in different directions, and the temptation is to call that a contradiction. It isn’t quite. Harvest delay slows the arrival of supply without reducing it, and winter wheat establishment concerns a crop that will not be harvested until 2027. Neither is a shortage. But funds have been selling into a season that is running late rather than early, and the gap between the financial position and the physical calendar is now wide enough to be worth watching.

Wheat is where that gap is clearest, which is why it gets a dedicated piece this week.

US Crop Intelligence — 20 October

Corn harvest falls further behind as Iowa and Michigan diverge. The first shows a field access constraint, the second a development deficit.

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CFTC Agricultural Positioning Intelligence — 20 October

Corn sheds a third of its net long in two weeks, sugar accumulation decelerates sharply, and lean hog shorts reach 39.4% of open interest.

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Wheat Analysis — Funds Build Shorts as Russian Export Supply Contracts

Chicago shorts build while Kansas City longs retreat, even as USDA cuts its Russian wheat export forecast by six million tonnes since August.

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CFTC Agricultural Positioning

Managed money, futures only. Positions as of 13 October 2026, released 16 October.

Net positions exclude separately reported spreading positions.

Corn’s reduction was the largest of the week and the second in succession, taking the two-week contraction to 134,795 contracts, or 35.4% of the position held on 29 September. The mechanism matters as much as the size: funds removed 63,005 longs and added 20,409 shorts, so the move combined liquidation with fresh bearish exposure.

All three wheat contracts deteriorated, but by different routes. Chicago widened its net short on fresh short selling, taking gross shorts to 24.0% of open interest. Kansas City and Minneapolis both remain net long, with Kansas City’s position now 57.3% below its 22 September level, reduced principally through the withdrawal of long exposure rather than new shorts.

USDA Crop Progress

Week ended 18 October 2026, released 19 October.

The corn harvest deficit widened from six points to eight over a week in which fieldwork resumed where conditions permitted, and the state detail separates two different problems. Iowa stands at 26% harvested against a 50% average with 98% of the crop mature, which is a field access constraint rather than a crop one. Michigan, at 13% against 31% with only 62% mature against 89%, has a development deficit instead. Ohio reported 4.0 days suitable for fieldwork and Iowa 4.6; Iowa also recorded 24% of topsoil moisture as surplus.

Sorghum carries the widest deficit of any crop at twelve points. Cotton is the only crop ahead of average, at 41% against 37%. Separately, 37% of the cotton crop is rated poor or very poor.

01 — Russia

USDA has cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports in three stages, from 46m tonnes in August to 43m in September and 40m in October. The six-million-tonne reduction is roughly 13% of the original figure, applied to the world’s largest exporter. Russian carryover stocks were raised at the same time, to 19.03m tonnes from 16.09m, so the constraint is on shipment rather than production. The EU export forecast was held at 31m tonnes, unchanged since July.

02 — Sugar

The net long reached 259,549 contracts, but the week’s addition of 7,035 was a sharp deceleration from the preceding week’s 34,178. Around 94% of the change came from new longs rather than short covering, so the direction has not reversed — only its speed.

03 — Lean Hogs

The net short deepened to 48,617 contracts. Gross shorts reached 116,798 contracts, equivalent to 39.4% of open interest. The latest increase follows a partial reduction in bearish net exposure in the preceding report, rather than an uninterrupted weekly build.

04 — Soybean Meal

Managed Money remained heavily net long at 204,643 contracts, declining by just 658 on the week, a long-short ratio of roughly 25 to 1. Its positioning was comparatively resilient rather than entirely unchanged.

01 — Friday 23 October

CFTC Commitments of Traders, covering positions dated Tuesday 20 October. Whether corn’s two-week liquidation extends to a third, and whether Kansas City wheat moves through neutral.

02 — Monday 26 October

USDA Crop Progress. Whether corn harvest closes the eight-point gap, and whether Kansas and Oklahoma winter wheat narrow their establishment deficits before dormancy.

03 — Tuesday 10 November

November WASDE. Whether the Russian export sequence extends beyond 40m tonnes, and any revision to the 740m-bushel US wheat carryout.

The Bottom Line

Two weeks of corn liquidation and reductions across most of the dashboard have left positioning materially less long than at the end of September. Corn has shed over a third of its net long, though it still holds 246,425 contracts. All three wheat contracts deteriorated. Sugar remains the largest net long at 259,549 contracts, with soybean meal at 204,643, and lean hog gross shorts stand at 39.4% of open interest.

The physical data do not obviously support that move. The US harvest is running behind average in corn and sorghum, winter wheat establishment is lagging in the states that matter most to the hard red winter crop, and USDA has removed six million tonnes from the export programme of the world’s largest wheat supplier in the space of two months.

None of that constitutes a shortage. Delayed harvest is a timing problem, delayed planting is a 2027 problem, and Russian wheat that is not exported still exists. The next two CFTC reports will show whether liquidation continues. The USDA’s harvest updates and subsequent export data will help determine whether the physical market provides a reason for funds to reconsider their positioning.

Data: USDA NASS Crop Progress, week ended 18 October 2026; CFTC Disaggregated COT, positions 13 October 2026; USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August, September and October 2026.

Cropwire is published every Tuesday by Bloodstone Research, covering global agricultural commodities, livestock markets and the emerging economies that produce them.

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