Cropwire

Last week the harvest was ahead of schedule. This week it isn’t.

Corn and soybeans both advanced five points and landed exactly on their five-year averages, but the national convergence conceals two very different harvests. Illinois took corn from 16% to 22% and soybeans from 8% to 16%; Iowa managed a single point in each after just 1.1 days suitable for fieldwork.

Funds, meanwhile, rebuilt soybean length only a week after cutting it. Corn and cotton length contracted, Chicago wheat moved back into a sizeable net short, and cocoa’s short deepened to −16,406 as the physical picture in West Africa became less comfortable.

Two Harvests, One National Number

Corn is 18% harvested and soybeans 17%, both exactly on their five-year averages. Conditions provided little additional information: corn was unchanged at 57% good/excellent and soybeans held at 58%.

The state data are more revealing. Illinois advanced six points in corn and eight in soybeans, while Iowa moved only one point in each. Iowa had 1.1 suitable fieldwork days and 39% surplus topsoil moisture. The early national advantage has disappeared as harvest moves through major producing acreage under sharply different field conditions.

Positioning is moving despite that stable national crop picture. Funds rebuilt soybean net length by 23,658 contracts to +265,159, while corn fell 10,363 to +404,097 and cotton 15,753 to +76,182. Chicago SRW returned to −12,016 net short just as winter-wheat planting slipped seven points behind normal.

Cocoa is the other important divergence. Managed money deepened its short to −16,406, through both long liquidation and new shorting, even as below-average rainfall returned to parts of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana widened its producer-price advantage over its neighbour.

Agricultural Positioning Intelligence — Rotation Turns Into Reversal

Soybeans reverse straight back into accumulation, corn begins to unwind and Chicago wheat’s bullish crossover almost completely disappears.

Read the note →

Cocoa Analysis — The Short Is Growing Just as the Weather Turns

Funds move deeper net short as inventories rebuild, but Côte d’Ivoire is drying out and Ghana has widened its farmgate-price advantage.

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US Crop Intelligence — The Early Harvest Lead Disappears

Corn and soybeans converge on their five-year averages as Illinois races ahead and Iowa stalls in the rain, while winter-wheat planting slips seven points behind.

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USDA Crop Progress

Week ended 27 September 2026, released 28 September.

The state split behind the national figures:

Iowa recorded 1.1 days suitable for fieldwork, against 1.7 the previous week, with 39% of topsoil rated surplus moisture.

CFTC Agricultural Positioning

Managed money, futures only. Positions as of 22 September 2026.

Chicago wheat has almost completed a full round trip. From −13,597 to +14,904 and back to −12,016 in four reports, the September crossover has essentially unwound — and it has done so while winter-wheat planting fell seven points behind average.

All thirteen markets reconcile to the previous vintage without restatement.

01 — Iowa Fieldwork

Corn is only 5% harvested and soybeans 3% after just 1.1 suitable fieldwork days. A return of workable weather would quickly test whether this is simply delayed harvest or something more consequential.

02 — Soybean Positioning

Funds added 23,658 contracts one week after cutting 15,757. The position has changed direction twice in a fortnight while harvest and condition data remain broadly stable.

03 — Cocoa

Managed money is −16,406 net short as rainfall weakens in parts of Côte d’Ivoire. European and Asian third-quarter grindings on 15 October are the next major demand test.

04 — Winter Wheat

Planting is seven points behind average and emergence three points behind, while Chicago SRW is −12,016 net short. The question is whether the planting deficit closes during early October.

05 — Agricultural Rotation

Corn, sugar and cotton length are contracting while soybeans and meal build. Whether that separation persists matters more than any single weekly move.

The Bottom Line

The national harvest is almost perfectly average. Corn at 18% and soybeans at 17% sit exactly on their five-year pace, while neither condition rating deteriorated.

What changed is the geography. Illinois advanced rapidly while rain left Iowa almost stationary. That is primarily a timing issue rather than evidence of lost production, but it delays the harvested evidence needed to test USDA’s 178.5-bushel corn and 52.8-bushel soybean assumptions.

Funds are already repositioning. Soybean length has been rebuilt, corn and cotton are being reduced, Chicago wheat has returned to a net short and cocoa shorts have increased as West African weather becomes less benign.

For the US crops, the next information comes from the combine. For cocoa, it comes from West African arrivals, weather and October grindings.

Data: USDA NASS Crop Progress, week ended 27 September 2026; Iowa Crop Progress and Condition report, same week; CFTC Disaggregated COT, positions 22 September 2026; ICE cocoa settlements, 25 September 2026.

Cropwire is published every Tuesday by Bloodstone Research, covering global agricultural commodities, livestock markets and the emerging economies that produce them. Publication dates may shift around US agricultural reporting holidays. This document is published by Bloodstone Research for informational and institutional research purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, commodity or security, or a forecast of future performance. Market conditions and data may change without notice. Readers should conduct their own analysis and, where appropriate, seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions.

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